Steel Intelligence Briefing

The Week That Was – September 26, 2025

From Mark Fluke

Head of Trade & Customs

Tariffs, trade remedies, and energy costs continue to shape the steel landscape. This week showed how fragile the balance is: order books freezing under U.S. tariffs, European green steel projects stalling despite subsidies, and a bold M&A play in Germany that could reset the map.

Here's what mattered, why it matters, and what to watch next.

News in Brief (TL;DR)

US tariffs stall orders: Outokumpu reports about a third of stainless customers delaying or cancelling orders due to 50% tariffs.
EU antidumping probe: Brussels investigates cold-rolled imports from India, Japan, Taiwan, Turkey, and Vietnam.
UK steel demand weakens: Prices continue to soften; government intervention looks likely.
Energy pinch in the UK: Producers pay ~25% more for electricity than EU rivals, with fees set to double.
Green steel stalls in Europe: Salzgitter delays later stages of its SALCOS project by ~3 years; ArcelorMittal cancels German conversions outright, both citing high energy costs.
M&A momentum: Jindal submits a €4bn bid for Thyssenkrupp's steel arm; Lloyds Metals commits $2.5bn to a new 4 Mt integrated plant in India.
Steel as strategy: The UK's Special Measures Act reinforces steel as a strategic sector for defence and security.

Our Analysis

Tariffs are showing their teeth.
Outokumpu's revelation that one-third of customers are pressing pause isn't abstract - it's a sign of a supply chain under strain. Expect the backlog to show up in Q4 performance.

Energy is the Achilles' heel on both sides of the Channel.
The UK is already burdened with a 25% electricity cost disadvantage. Now, even in Germany — with cheaper industrial power and massive subsidies — Salzgitter has delayed SALCOS and ArcelorMittal has scrapped conversions. If Europe can't make green steel projects stack up, the economics for the UK are even tougher. That means slower decarbonisation timelines, more phased projects, and greater reliance on regulatory tools like TRQs, origin rules, and CBAM for competitiveness in the near term.

Consolidation is heating up.
Jindal's play for Thyssenkrupp is not just about scale - it's about staking a claim in Europe's green steel future. If the deal goes through, expect ripple effects: competitors seeking similar footholds, governments weighing their support, and fresh pressure on local players to accelerate or risk falling behind.

Forward Signals

Trade rulings: EU antidumping decisions and clarity on U.S. tariffs could shift flows rapidly.
Energy cost divergence: Watch UK vs EU spreads; if Germany is already stalling projects, the UK may face even bigger hurdles.
Green steel CAPEX phasing: Expect more projects to be delayed, scaled down, or dependent on firmer power-price guarantees.
Policy response: Whether the UK or EU introduces schemes that link decarbonisation to predictable electricity pricing will be a key unlock.
M&A progress: Jindal-Thyssenkrupp talks will show whether investors still back large-scale green bets in this cost environment.
Order backlog: The demand slowdown from Q3 tariffs could hit Q4 hard.

This Week's Insights

EU Industry Struggles with New US Rules on Steel and Aluminium Imports

The US has imposed 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminium, requiring complex origin documentation that is creating significant administrative burdens and costs for European manufacturers.

Ministers favour merging all UK steel companies into one

An in-depth look at the potential merger of UK steel companies and its implications for stockholders and buyers.

Clarity needed to prevent EU row on NI environmental taxes

Northern Ireland could provoke a row between the UK and EU over environmental taxes, a business organisation has warned.

The UK CBAM: What businesses need to know to get ready

The UK government's green light for a domestic Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is a major step towards net zero by 2050. But who will it affect and how?

Closing Note

The dream of green steel is alive, but the economics are biting. For now, tariffs, TRQs, and traceability are doing more heavy lifting than hydrogen. That won't change overnight.

The purpose of our weekly Steel Intelligence Briefing is to keep a clear radar on these shifting dynamics — so you can see not just what happened, but where the pressure points and opportunities lie.

If you'd like to explore how these developments affect your supply chain or market strategy, let's connect.

Mark

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