Now
●UK CBAMLive 1 Jan 2027
●EU CBAM Q1 certificate price€75.36/t · set 7 Apr 2026
●EU ETS carbon price~€72/t (Dec 2026 contract)
●UK quota cut–51% from 1 Jul 2026
●UK out-of-quota tariff50%
●Global steel surplus721m t by 2027 (OECD)
●EU default values uplift+10% 2026 · +20% 2027
●UK CBAMLive 1 Jan 2027
●EU CBAM Q1 certificate price€75.36/t · set 7 Apr 2026
●EU ETS carbon price~€72/t (Dec 2026 contract)
●UK quota cut–51% from 1 Jul 2026
●UK out-of-quota tariff50%
●Global steel surplus721m t by 2027 (OECD)
●EU default values uplift+10% 2026 · +20% 2027
The Sourcing Optimiser is live

Check any steel quota In seconds.

Live, by origin. UK, EU, Northern Ireland. Free during the July transition.

Check Your Quota Position — Free → Why this matters ↓
⚡ The clock
1 Jul 2026UK quotas cut by 51% · 50% out-of-quota tariff
1 Jan 2027UK CBAM live - liability begins
1 Jan 2028EU CBAM scope extension proposed for downstream goods
31 May 2028First annual UK CBAM return due
What's happening

Steel trade is being
repriced in real time.

The rules that governed steel sourcing for the last thirty years are changing simultaneously - carbon, quotas, tariffs, and traceability. The companies that understand this now will set the terms for everyone else.

01 - Carbon
CBAM means your emissions are now your cost
UK CBAM is live in January 2027. Every tonne of steel you import from outside the UK/EU carries an embedded carbon liability. If you can't prove your goods are low-carbon, you pay a penalty rate by default. The penalty is set deliberately high to incentivise data. Most importers don't have the data.
02 - Quotas
51% quota cuts are reshaping sourcing overnight
From 1 July 2026, UK steel import quotas are cut by 51%. Grades that were available on day one will become scarce within weeks. Companies managing sourcing in spreadsheets will lose access to supply they've relied on for years. The lead time to act is now.
03 - Data
Your customers are already asking for data you don't have
EU CBAM is live now. Your customers in Ireland and Europe are already filing declarations - and they need your emissions data to do it. A supplier who won't provide emissions data is effectively increasing their customer's costs. That's a contract risk.
04 - Traceability
Origin verification is becoming contractually mandatory
Melt-and-pour traceability is now embedded in the UK Steel Strategy. The direction of travel is clear: unverified steel origin will attract premium tariffs, compliance risk, and customer rejection. The digital passport era for steel has begun.
The gap

The industry is running
on broken information.

Steel trade today is managed with WhatsApp messages, spreadsheets, and PDFs. That worked when compliance was simple. It doesn't work now.

01

No trusted source of emissions data

Mills produce it. Traders lose it. Importers guess it. The carbon footprint of a tonne of steel changes every time it changes hands - and nobody has a system for tracking it.

02

Commodity codes: trusted by default, owned by law

CBAM/TRQ liability is determined by classification. Many importers rely on supplier-provided codes without verifying if they are correct, whether exceptions apply, or which regime they’re even liable under, adding undue risk to an already volatile supply chain.

03

Sourcing decisions made without carbon cost

Buyers compare price per tonne. Nobody is comparing price per tonne plus CBAM levy. That gap is where margins are about to disappear - or be protected.

The Tool

Check any steel quota
in seconds. Live.

The ChainMill Sourcing Optimiser is live now. Enter a commodity code and see every safeguard quota position, by origin country, ranked and colour coded - pulled directly from the live UK tariff and EU TARIC systems.

Free during the July transition
  • Live quota status by origin. Green, amber, red at a glance. Know which origins are safe and which are about to exhaust - before you place the order.
  • UK, EU and Northern Ireland territories. The correct quota regime for your import route, including the Windsor Framework position for NI.
  • EU CBAM exposure built in. Default embedded emissions values shown against every origin, so you can see the carbon cost coming before January 2027.
Get Free Access →
"For anyone importing steel right now, ChainMill is a no-brainer. The Sourcing Optimiser takes the admin away and shows you exactly where you stand on your quotas in seconds." Margaret Hall CQP MCQI · Service and Systems Manager · The Keystone Group
ChainMill Sourcing Optimiser - live quota positions by origin country, colour coded
Our customers are already asking for highly granular CBAM data - we need a simpler way to provide it.
Steel Stockholder
UK & Ireland
Weekly Briefings

The intelligence layer
your competitors
don't have.

Every Friday, we synthesise the week's regulatory, market, and policy movements into structured intelligence for people who make sourcing and compliance decisions.

Browse all weekly briefings →
Recent Issues
#38
At the 11th Hour: final quotas and EU deal confirmed
26 June 2026 · UK steel quotas
↗ #37
A week of positioning, consolidation and confession
19 June 2026 · Consolidation
↗ #36
Domestic policy, reduced quotas and their fast-approaching implementation dominate the headlines
12 June 2026 · Domestic Policy
↗ #35
The OECD puts a number on the crisis — 745 million tonnes of surplus by 2028 — and the Safeguard Paradox it creates.
5 June 2026 · Global surplus
↗
It's Live

The tool for July
is here.

The Sourcing Optimiser is live and free to use while the new quota regime beds in. Built with working UK and Irish steel companies. Sign up for the tool, or just stay close with the weekly briefing. No spam. Unsubscribe any time.